One method of storing gas at fuel farms is to use 500-gallon horizontal bullet–shaped LP compressed gas storage tanks.
Assume that the probability of a spilled fuel ignition is 0.200.
If ignited, the probability that the tank is totally engulfed in fire is 0.100.
If the fire is a totally engulfing type, the probability of its extinguishment is 0.60.
If not extinguished, the probability that a totally engulfing fire will cause a BLEVE is 0.50.
The probability of extinguishing a fire that is not totally engulfing is 0.95.
If not extinguished, the probability of a BLEVE is 0.10.
For the given fuel spill, find the probability of a BLEVE and predict other possible outcomes and consequences.
Utilize the attached ETA template
Show the sequence of events or paths that must be followed to result in our BLEVE. Determine what has to come 1st, what must follow 2nd, then 3rd, etc. Hint: it starts with a fuel spill.
Based on the description, construct a graphical representation of the events and the possible outcomes. Hint: One outcome is a BLEVE, another outcome is no BLEVE, but there are others.
Calculate the probability of each of your outcomes above.
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